After months of increasingly difficult trading conditions, UK manufacturers have finally received some more positive news.
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey shows a significant improvement in manufacturing order books in August.
Total order books in August were reported at -25%, compared with -45% in July, meaning they were below “normal” to the smallest extent since November 2024. Showing signs of recovery whilst still in a historical deficit.
Export order books improved even more sharply, moving from -33% in July to 0% in August, returning to “normal” for the first time since June 2022.
On the surface, that's encouraging.
But there is another side to the story.
One better month doesn't make a recovery
The August figures need to be considered alongside what came before them.
In June, manufacturing order books had fallen to their weakest level since September 2020.
Then, in July, the volume of new orders fell at its fastest pace in six years.
Manufacturers were also dealing with rapidly rising costs, weaker investment intentions and falling employment.
So, August's improvement is welcome - but it needs context.
The CBI itself has warned that it is too early to know whether the improvement represents a sustained shift in conditions.
The cost squeeze hasn't gone away.
One of the most important details in the latest figures is that manufacturers are still dealing with significant cost pressures.
Selling-price expectations strengthened in August to +22%, up from +11% in July and well above the long-run average of +8%.
That matters because manufacturers cannot necessarily pass every increase in their own costs on to customers.
The July CBI survey showed average costs rising at their fastest pace since October 2022, while manufacturers were already reporting pressure on profitability.
For businesses operating in complex manufacturing supply chains, that creates a difficult balancing act:
How do you remain competitive while maintaining quality, investing in capability and protecting margins?
Resilience matters when the market is uncertain
The last few months have highlighted something that goes beyond order books.
For manufacturers, resilience isn't simply about surviving periods of weak demand. It's about being able to respond when conditions change.
That could mean:
- Having reliable UK suppliers
- Reducing unnecessary production steps
- Improving tooling and manufacturing processes
- Investing in technology
- Developing skilled teams
- Improving quality and repeatability
- Reducing reliance on fragile supply chains
The businesses that have strengthened these areas during a difficult market may be better positioned when demand eventually improves.
This is where early project decisions matter
For MPM, this is particularly relevant to the way we work with customers.
A manufacturing project can become significantly more difficult and expensive when issues aren't identified until production has already begun.
Working through design, CAD, pattern making and tooling requirements early can help manufacturers understand potential issues before they become production problems.
MPM works with customers from the early stages of a project, considering factors such as manufacturability and process fit.
A real case study: Elta UK
One example of this approach is MPM's work with Elta UK.
Following challenges with an overseas supplier, Elta wanted to bring GRP fan moulding production back to the UK.
MPM Durham supported the project through reverse engineering, tooling development and the establishment of UK production across more than 20 variants.
The outcome included improved quality, shorter lead times and greater control over the supply chain.
This is a useful example of the wider point.
Resilient manufacturing isn't necessarily about having everything under one roof. It's about having the right capability, knowledge and relationships around the production process.
So, is UK manufacturing recovering?
It's too early to say.
The August CBI figures provide a welcome improvement in order books, particularly export demand.
But output is still falling. Total order books remain below their long-run average. Cost pressures remain elevated. And manufacturers are still operating in an uncertain environment.
The more useful question may therefore be:
Are UK manufacturers becoming better prepared for whatever comes next?
For MPM, that means continuing to invest in people, technology, processes and manufacturing capability.
Because whether the next few months bring stronger demand or another period of uncertainty, manufacturers that can deliver consistently, adapt quickly and control their supply chains will be in the strongest position.
The takeaway
The latest CBI figures are encouraging.
But they aren't a recovery story - not yet.
They're a sign that conditions may be starting to change.
And after a difficult period for UK manufacturing, that may be the most important development of all.
